2025年4月23日 星期三

一天一個樣。

 特朗普主动提出大幅降低对华关税,暗示“谈判就有优惠”,却遭中方冷处理。美国零售业哀鸿遍野,经济衰退信号频现,这场贸易持久战正让“美国优先”,沦为“美国焦虑”。

【特朗普称将大幅下降对华关税】

随着一张张扑克牌,在中美贸易战的豪华赌桌上被揭开,特朗普似乎决定不再藏着掖着了。中美间这场声势浩大的贸易角力,经历了关税战的多次洗礼,终于逼得特朗普把手中的底牌亮了出来。

特朗普承认,对中国征收的145%关税太高,他将大幅下调这个数字。而这一切,正是他试图与中国重开谈判时,所抛出的橄榄枝。

特朗普暗示,如果中国主动谈判,美国会给出更好的条件。但即便如此,加上的关税也不会恢复到贸易战之前的水平。细细品味一下,这就像在牌桌上亮出了底牌,但又用手遮住了一半。特朗普式的“变脸”着实耐人寻味。

解析这种策略可以发现,特朗普此番姿态并非偶然。根据野村综合研究所的数据,美国加征的145%关税,对其经济已造成了巨大的影响。美国农产品出口暴跌54%,波音飞机订单锐减70%。

【中国严格管制稀土出口击中美国“七寸”】

而中国在稀土市场上的严控,则让美国的军工企业感受到了“断粮”危机。更具讽刺意味的是,其他国家趁势而起,加拿大、巴西等国以更低价,抢占了美国的中国市场。

美国国内的形势也不容乐观。国债收益率曲线倒挂的现象,无疑为美国经济敲响了警钟,预示着经济衰退的风险正在加剧。如果贸易摩擦持续,分析预计美国企业盈利将缩水15%,标普500指数也可能再跌20%。

与此同时,从美国零售业界向特朗普发出的求救信号中,也可见一斑。美国消费者新闻与商业频道(CNBC)披露,不久前,美国三大零售巨头一起突访白宫,与特朗普进行了一场秘密谈判。

随着全球供应链的紧张,这些行业巨头正面临空前的压力。比如,沃尔玛33%的商品依赖全球进口,中国和墨西哥是最大供应国;塔吉特百货的70%商品来自海外。

【美国三大零售巨头突访白宫椭圆形办公室】

在这样的背景下,关税显然对零售业造成了致命的打击。全国零售商联合会估计,现行关税使美国消费者每年多支付900亿美元,而消费者只能捏着鼻子接受,因为没有其他选择。

而希腊前财长亚尼斯・瓦鲁法基斯,也直言不讳地指出,特朗普的关税政策实质上,是在做最后的垂死挣扎,以维持"美国优先"的霸权幻觉。

然而,这样的策略反过来也在撕咬美国自己。制造业回流计划因成本过高搁浅,几个铁锈地带的失业率反而上升了2.3%。面对这些挑战,特朗普被迫采取应急措施。

显而易见,特朗普意识到了事态的严重性。但即便如此,美国对于中国的期望仍旧是希望我们的主动。可是,就连最基本的善意都没有,美国如何指望中国能顺坡下驴?

【美国并没有表达出足够的谈判诚意】

中国早已表明立场,美国如果想重启谈判,必须要释放出足够的诚意,包括停止干涉中国内政的行为。虽然中方强调贸易战没有赢家,但中国并不畏惧对抗到底。若想通过谈判解决问题,美国必须采取平等、尊重的方式,而非极限施压。

然而现实是,美国对中国高科技产业的限制依然存在,且在台湾问题上毫无进展,一直没有明确表态支持和平统一,甚至,一个中国原则也逐渐淡出了美国的外交辞典。

无论如何谈判,美国都应当以切实的行动展示出诚意,而不是仅仅停留在口头上的承诺。那种试图凭空捏造筹码、妄图逃避责任却坐享其成的做法,早已被国际社会识破,也已经行不通了。

【中国不会在原则问题上做出让步】

美国提出的种种条件,看似诱人,实则暗藏玄机,根本不足以让中国以实实在在的利益作为交换。中国深知,在国际交往的舞台上,真正的强硬并非体现在高声的喊话,和激烈的舆论攻势中,而是源于平等与尊重的基石。

美国如果想与中国达成有意义的合作,就必须摒弃霸权思维和零和博弈的观念。它需要认识到,在当今这个相互依存的世界里,没有哪个国家能够独善其身。通过对话与协商,寻找共同利益点,实现互利共赢,才是符合双方根本利益的正确道路。

中国愿意以开放包容的姿态,与美国开展建设性的对话。但这并不意味着,中国会在原则问题上做出让步。相反,中国将以更加坚定的决心,和更加有力的行动,捍卫自己的核心利益和发展权益。

2025年4月21日 星期一

環保活動

GCIOSGF Newsletter 會訊:
Host: WP
Edit: OF
保護環境人人有責
在世界地球日之際,我們呼籲大家共同關注我們的環境。地球是我們唯一的家,保護它是我們每個人的責任。
大中華留學生全球總會環境監督推廣聯盟致力於成為推動可持續發展的重要力量。我們展望未來,將繼續加強對環境保護的宣導,促進社會各界對可持續生活方式的認識與實踐。我們希望透過教育與合作,激勵更多人參與環保行動,並推動政策改變,為未來的世代創造一個更健康、更美好的地球。我們也會和大中華留學生全球總會時尚蔬食薈一起攜手並肩,推廣可持續性大生活方式,鼓勵大家選擇植物性飲食,減少碳足跡,我們堅信,透過小小的改變,我們可以為地球的未來帶來巨大的影響,讓我們一起行動、為我們的星球創造一個更美好的明天。
On the Earth Day ,we call upon everyone to pay attention to our environment.The Earth is our only home,and protecting it is the responsibility of each one of us. GCIOSGF Environmental Supervision Promotion Alliance is committed to being a key force in promoting sustainable development. Looking ahead, we will continue to strengthen our advocacy for environmental protection and enhance awareness and practice of sustainable lifestyles across society. We aim to inspire more individuals to engage in environmental actions through education and collaboration, and to drive policy changes that will create a healthier and better planet for future generations.

The GCIOSGF Environmental Supervision &Promotion Alliance and GCIOSGF Fashion Veggie Club join forces to promote sustainable living and encourage everyone to choose plant-based diets to reduce our carbon footprint. We believe that through small changes, we can make a significant impact on the future of our planet. Let us take action together to create a better tomorrow for our world! 






 

2025年3月22日 星期六

Conflict of contradictions

GCIOSGF Newsletter 會訊:

 Merry reading time 悦讀匯

Host: WP

Edit: OF

Source from net

U.S. Vice President Cyrus Vance said, “The original intention of globalization was to allow wealthy countries to move to higher ends of the value chain, while poor countries engage in simpler production tasks. The goal of globalization is not to reduce global inequality, but to maintain it. However, poor countries (mainly China) are not willing to remain in the role of cheap labor forever, but are beginning to develop themselves to higher levels of the value chain.” His meaning is very clear, not to solve inequality, but to maintain inequality.

This statement is a bit direct, but it actually expresses a fact that many people know well. Globalization was originally designed to allow already wealthy countries to enjoy low-cost production through outsourcing manufacturing and further consolidate their economic advantages. For example, American and European companies moved their production lines to Asia, especially China, relying on the cheap labor there. As a result, their product costs are low and their profits are high, while China and other developing countries can only get the lowest profit in the manufacturing stage and cannot enjoy higher levels of the value chain such as technology research and development and brand building.

In other words, the "rules" of globalization have always been set by developed countries, which have pushed themselves to the high end of the value chain and left low-end, labor-intensive jobs to poor countries. In this way, the problem of global inequality has been "institutionalized." It seems that globalization allows the economies of various countries to interact with each other, but in fact it is a disguised form of exploitation.

But the problem is that over time, poor countries like China are no longer satisfied with just being "cheap factories." They have invested huge amounts of money and manpower to develop their own technology and education, and have gradually expanded from low-end manufacturing to higher-end science and technology, finance, innovation and other fields. China's Huawei, Alibaba, and even high-speed rail technology have represented a transformation from "world factory" to "innovation engine." China's economic structure is undergoing tremendous changes, and this transformation is also posing challenges to the model of globalization.

To be honest, this change has not only made those developed countries that once occupied the high end of the global manufacturing industry feel uneasy, but also made other developing countries begin to reflect on the true meaning of globalization. For example, countries such as India and Vietnam are also working hard to expand from low-end manufacturing to higher value areas. Their goal is not just to follow China's pace, but to use the platform of globalization to escape poverty and improve their own economic status.

But this does not mean that globalization itself is a bad thing. At least it makes the global economy more closely connected and provides development opportunities for some countries. But there are indeed some problems with the original intention and implementation of globalization. Without more equitable resource allocation and technology sharing, it will be difficult for those countries that remain marginalized to truly integrate into the high end of the global value chain. In other words, if globalization only makes some people rich but does not bring substantial progress to more countries, then its significance is questionable.

And, as Vance says, developed countries don't seem to want the "rules of the game" of globalization to change much. After all, it is in their best interest to maintain the existing structure. Especially when developing countries such as China begin to challenge this unequal structure, developed countries may try to prevent the development of these countries through trade barriers, technological blockades and other means, or even reshape the rules of globalization to ensure that they can continue to dominate.

This makes the future of globalization full of uncertainty. If traditional powers are unable to put aside their prejudices and accept the fact that emerging countries are gradually rising, globalization may come to a standstill. This will not only affect the further development of the global economy, but may also increase tensions between countries.










美國副總統萬斯說,「全球化的初衷是讓富裕國家向價值鏈的更高端發展,而貧窮國家則從事較為簡單的生產任務。全球化的目標並非是減少全球不平等,而是維持不平等。但貧窮國家(主要是中國)並不願意永遠保持廉價勞動力角色,而是開始自己向價值鏈的更高層次發展。」他的意思很明確,不是要解決不平等,而是要維持不平等。

這種話說得有點直接,但其實說出了很多人心知肚明的事實。全球化一開始就是為了讓那些已經富裕的國家透過外包製造業,享受低成本的生產,進一步鞏固自己的經濟優勢。比如說,美國和歐洲的公司把生產線搬到亞洲,尤其是中國,靠的是那裡的便宜勞動力。這樣一來,他們的商品成本低,利潤高,而中國和其他發展中國家卻只能拿到製造階段最低的那部分利潤,根本無法享受到技術研發、品牌建設等價值鏈的更高層次。

換句話說,全球化的「規則」一直都是由已開發國家定的,他們把自己推向了價值鏈的高端,而把低端的、勞力密集的工作丟給了那些貧窮國家。這樣一來,全球不平等的問題就被「制度化」了。看似全球化讓各國的經濟都有了互動,其實卻是一種變相的剝削。

但問題是,隨著時間的推移,像中國這樣的貧窮國家開始不再滿足於僅僅是「廉價工廠」的角色了。它們投入龐大的資金和人力,發展自己的技術、教育,慢慢從低端製造向更高端的科技、金融、創新等領域拓展。中國的華為、阿里巴巴,甚至是高鐵技術,已經代表了一個從「世界工廠」到「創新引擎」的轉變。中國的經濟結構正在發生巨變,而這種轉變,也讓全球化的模式開始面臨挑戰。

說實話,這種改變不僅讓那些曾經佔據全球製造業高端的已開發國家感到不安,也讓其他發展中國家開始反思全球化的真正意義。例如,印度、越南這些國家也努力從低端製造向更高價值的領域擴展,它們的目標不只是跟著中國的步伐走,而是希望藉助全球化這個平台,去擺脫貧窮的困境,提升自身的經濟地位。

但這也不是說全球化本身就是壞事,它至少讓全球經濟連結更加緊密,也為一些國家提供了發展機會。但全球化的初衷和實施方式,的確有一些問題。如果沒有更公平的資源分配和技術共享,那些仍然被邊緣化的國家就很難真正融入全球價值鏈的高端。換句話說,全球化如果只是讓一部分人富有,而沒有讓更多國家得到實質的進步,那麼它的意義就值得懷疑。

而且,像萬斯所說的,已開發國家似乎不想讓全球化的「遊戲規則」有太大的改變。畢竟,保持現有的結構對它們來說是最有利的。尤其是當中國等發展中國家開始挑戰這種不平等的結構時,已開發國家可能會透過貿易壁壘、技術封鎖等手段,試圖阻止這些國家的發展,甚至重新塑造全球化的規則,以確保自己能夠繼續佔據主導地位。

這就讓全球化的未來充滿了不確定性。如果那些傳統的強國始終無法放下偏見,接受新興國家逐步崛起的事實,那麼全球化可能就會陷入僵局。這不僅會影響全球經濟的進一步發展,也可能加劇國家之間的緊張關係。

2025年3月2日 星期日

GCIOSGF 時尚蔬食薈 3 月舉行每月蔬食一次救地球活動

GCIOSGF Newsletter 會訊

Host :SBP:Angel Wang

          NBP : Ben Lee

          Edit: OF

本會時尚蔬食會南北臺灣分會於前日昨日分別舉行了每月蔬食一次一次救地球月例會活動

The North and South Taiwan branches of our GCIOSGF Veggie Club held a monthly vegetarian meeting yesterday to save the earth

 每一口蔬食,都是給地球的『溫暖救贖』吃蔬食減少資源消耗,減少碳排,保護環境,尊重生命。GCIOSGF 時尚蔬食薈分別於今日昨日舉行了每月蔬食一次救地月例會。Every bite of vegetarian food is a "warm salvation" for the earth. Eating vegetarian food reduces resource consumption, reduces carbon emissions, protects the environment, and respects life. GCIOSGF Fashion Veggie Club held its monthly separately vegetarian meeting to save the earth today and yesterday.





























GCIOSGF

一天一個樣。

  特朗普主动提出大幅降低对华关税,暗示“谈判就有优惠”,却遭中方冷处理。美国零售业哀鸿遍野,经济衰退信号频现, 这场贸易持久战正让“美国优先”,沦为“美国焦虑”。 【特朗普称将大幅下降对华关税】 随着一张张扑克牌,在中美贸易战的豪华赌桌上被揭开,特朗普似乎决定不再藏着掖着了。中...