GCIOSGF. Newsletter 會訊:
Edit: AI
The impact of AI on the job market is not simply "mass layoffs," but rather a subtle reshaping of the workplace through methods such as "invisible freezes" and "skill evaporation."
1. Current Workplace Situation: "Major Freeze" and Disappearance of Entry-Level Positions
Companies Stop Recruiting: According to a study by the Yale Institute for Executive Leadership in April 2026, many companies are not issuing mass layoff notices directly, but instead choosing to "stop recruiting" (the major freeze), using natural attrition rates to reduce their workforce.
New Graduates Hit Hardest: Data from Anthropic and PwC shows that in high-exposure AI professions, the job success rate for young people aged 22 to 25 is declining, traditional entry-level positions are shrinking, and companies are even raising the requirements for entry-level positions to the point where mid-level leadership and communication skills are required.
Goldman Sachs' latest research: A Goldman Sachs research report released in November 2026 indicates that workers who lose their jobs due to AI take longer to return to work than others (approximately 3 weeks longer for those under 35 and approximately 5 weeks longer for those over 35), and older workers often re-enter high-AI-exposure positions.
2. The "Silent Shock" of Salaries and Skills
Skill Evaporation: The value of highly repetitive skills such as translation, proofreading, basic programming, data processing, and basic legal document review is rapidly declining.
Slow Salary Growth: Data from July 2026 shows that salary growth in high-AI-exposure occupations is significantly slower than in low-exposure occupations. Entry-level workers are experiencing more significant salary suppression; many have retained their jobs, but their salaries are difficult to increase.
3. Differing Perspectives and Industry Differences
Expert Warning: Former Google X Business Chief Mo Gawdat and others have warned that white-collar jobs will face significant challenges in the coming years.
Conversely, industry leaders like NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang hold a different view, believing that AI will improve work efficiency and ultimately create more engineering needs and collaborative opportunities.
AI will not replace humans, and its impact on the workplace will not be a sudden mass layoff, but rather a more subtle and gradual change to the structure of the labor market.
1. The Invisible Impact: The "Big Freeze" and the Fresh Graduate Dilemma
No layoffs, but "no replacements": According to research from Yale University and related studies, many companies have not issued a large number of severance notices, but instead have taken advantage of natural attrition (such as the approximately 13% voluntary turnover rate annually) and chosen not to fill vacancies. Statistically, this manifests as "jobs that should have appeared never appearing."
The "Seniorization" of Entry-Level Positions: Research by PwC and Harvard University indicates that in companies that have adopted generative AI, the number of entry-level employees has decreased significantly within six quarters. Companies are no longer willing to pay for training new employees in basic skills (such as translation, proofreading, basic programming, and data processing), but instead tend to directly require job seekers to possess comprehensive abilities at the mid-level or higher.
2. The "Evaporation" of Salaries and Skills: First, salary cuts, then unemployment: Apollo Economics research shows that salary growth in high-exposure AI occupations lags significantly behind low-exposure occupations, with the lowest-paid groups being most affected. Many people remain in their positions, but some of their repetitive skills have been replaced by AI, leading to stagnant salaries.
Huang's Viewpoint: NVIDIA founder Jensen Huang has stated that AI automates "tasks," not entire "jobs." The future trend is not AI replacing humans, but rather "people who understand AI better replacing those who don't know how to use it."
3. The Opposing View: Labor Shortages and New Opportunities: Cathie Wood, founder of ARK Invest, holds the opposite view, arguing that there is no large-scale unemployment wave. Instead, due to the retirement of a large number of baby boomers and changes in the labor force structure, the US and some global industries may face labor shortages and the benefits of increased productivity. AI will not directly replace humans, but "those who know how to use AI effectively will replace those who don't."
Core Concepts Analysis
Job and Role Transformation: AI excels at standardized, repetitive, data-analysis, and rapidly generated tasks (such as translation, basic customer service, junior documentation, and programming). Therefore, those who lack initiative, simply follow instructions, or don't know how to interact with AI are easily eliminated. Irreplaceable Human Qualities: AI lacks genuine situational understanding, empathy, deep emotional connection, and the judgment required to bear legal and ethical responsibility.
The real challenge lies with humanity itself: The most crucial ability in the future will no longer be rote memorization of knowledge, but rather the ability to "redefine problems, ask AI precise questions, verify results, and take responsibility for decisions."
AI對就業市場的衝擊並非單純的「大規模裁員」，而是透過「隱形凍結」與「技能蒸發」等方式悄悄重塑職場。
1. 職場現況：「大凍結」與初階職位消失
企業停止補人： 根據2026年4月耶魯大學高階主管領導力研究所的研究，許多企業並未直接發出大量資遣通知，而是選擇「不再補人」（大凍結），利用自然離職率來縮減人力。
職場新鮮人受創最重： Anthropic與PwC的資料顯示，AI高曝險職業中，22至25歲年輕人的求職成功率下降，傳統初階職位萎縮，企業對初階職缺的要求甚至被墊高到需要具備中階的領導與溝通能力。
高盛最新研究： 2026年11月高盛（Goldman Sachs）研究報告指出，因AI受影響而失業的勞工，重返職場的時間比其他人更久（35歲以下多花約3週、35歲以上多花約5週），且年長者重新就業時常再次進入AI高曝險的職位。
2. 薪資與技能的「安靜衝擊」
技能蒸發： 翻譯、校對、基礎編程、數據整理及初階法律文件審閱等重複性高的技能價值快速下滑。
薪資成長緩慢： 2026年7月的數據顯示，AI高曝險職業的薪資成長速度明顯慢於低曝險職業，基層人員受到的薪資壓制更加顯著，許多人雖然保住了工作，但薪水卻難以調升。
3. 不同觀點與產業差異
專家預警： 前Google X商務長莫．加多（Mo Gawdat）等人曾警告，白領職缺在未來幾年將面臨高度衝擊。
相反觀點： 輝達（NVIDIA）執行長黃仁勳等業界領袖則持反向看法，認為AI將提升工作效率，最終會創造更多工程需求與協作機會。
AI 不會取代人類且對職場的衝擊並非「一夕之間大規模裁員」，而是以更隱蔽、漸進的方式改變勞動市場的結構。
1. 隱形的衝擊：「大凍結」與新鮮人困境
不裁員，而是「不補人」：根據耶魯大學與相關研究，許多企業並未發出大量資遣通知，而是利用員工的自然離職（如每年約13%的自願離職率），選擇不再遞補空缺。這在統計上表現為「該出現的工作從來沒有出現過」。
初階職位的「資深化」：PwC與哈佛大學研究指出，導入生成式AI的企業中，初階員工人數在6季內明顯下降。企業不再願意支付成本去培訓新人的基礎技能（如翻譯、校對、基礎編程、數據整理），而是傾向直接要求求職者具備中階以上的綜合能力。
2. 薪資與技能的「蒸發」
先降薪、後失業：Apollo經濟學研究顯示，AI高曝險職業的薪資成長速度明顯落後於低曝險職業，尤其是薪資分布底層的族群受影響最大。許多人雖然還坐在位置上，但其部分重複性技能已被AI取代，導致薪水停滯。
黃仁勳的觀點：輝達（NVIDIA）創辦人黃仁勳曾表示，AI自動化掉的是「任務（Tasks）」而非整份「工作（Jobs）」，未來的趨勢不是AI取代人類，而是「更懂AI的人取代不會用AI的人」。
3. 反方看法：勞動力短缺與新機會
方舟投資（ARK Invest）創辦人「木頭姐」（Cathie Wood）持相反觀點，認為市場並沒有出現大規模失業潮，反而因為大量嬰兒潮世代退休與勞動力結構改變，未來美國與全球部分產業更可能面臨「缺工」與生產力提升後的紅利分潤。AI 不會直接取代人類，但「懂得善用AI的人，將會取代不懂得使用AI的人」。
核心觀點解析
工作與角色轉變：AI擅長處理標準化、重複性高、資料分析與快速生成的任務（例如翻譯、基本客服、初階文書與程式編碼），因此缺乏主見、只會照表操課或不懂得與AI互動的人容易被淘汰。人類不可取代的特質：AI缺乏真正的情境理解、同理心、深層情感連結，以及需要承擔法律與倫理責任的判斷力。
真正的挑戰在於人類自身：未來最關鍵的能力不再是死記硬背的知識，而是「重新定義問題、向AI精準提問、驗證結果並對決策負責」的思考能力。
