GCIOSGF Newsletter 會訊：
From FT
Edit: OF
美國想要川普——沒有如果或但是
From FT
Edit: OF
卡瑪拉哈里斯的氛圍、快樂、樂觀和好萊塢式的微笑就到此為止了。美國拒絕了這筆交易。四年前，獲勝的喬·拜登將唐納德·特朗普視為“異常時刻”。鑑於川普有公平的機會贏得普選，除了美國的選舉人團之外，歷史現在肯定會將這一頭銜授予拜登。畢竟，川普是美國歷史上最著名、調查最多的提名人之一。選他一次可能是意外；兩次這樣做都是睜大眼睛的。川普是合法的下一任美國總統。
問題是為什麼？故事的很大一部分是，足夠多的美國人想要川普所推銷的東西：大規模驅逐非法移民、結束全球化以及對自由派精英經常自我嘲諷的身份認同方式（更廣為人知的說法是“覺醒」）豎起中指。所有這些都超過了選民對川普性格的任何懷疑。美國似乎可能會選出一名被定罪的重罪犯，他也因試圖推翻上次選舉而被起訴，而且是獨裁者的公開崇拜者，這可以用以下兩種方式之一來解釋。要嘛選民沒有認真對待川普帶來的風險，要嘛他們確切地知道自己讓這個國家陷入什麼境地，但仍然寧願一切照舊。
不管怎樣，川普的連任對民主黨來說都是一場生死存亡的災難。對美國的盟友來說，這也是歷史性的遊戲規則改變者。民主的相互指責將會密集且快速地到來。任何事後分析肯定會突顯這樣一個事實：明顯患病的拜登等了太久才放棄黨內提名。如果拜登提前六個月退出，民主黨將有時間找到比哈里斯更好的候選人。也許進行真正的初選並沒有什麼不同。公平地說，哈里斯的競選活動進展順利，在唯一的辯論中擊敗了川普，並團結了民主黨人支持她。但每當談話轉向經濟時，她充其量只是平庸——這是她盡力避免的話題。缺乏令人信服的經濟敘事將是任何美國選舉的一大缺陷。競爭性初選會發現這一點。
哈里斯如此順利地繼承了王位，但她幾乎沒有時間和動力來糾正自己的缺陷。然而，她仍然可以創造一個「索爾賈修女時刻」來證明她不是柏克萊的激進分子。比爾·克林頓 (Bill Clinton) 1992 年對這位同名黑人作家的批評表明，他不是一個老式的自由主義者，這有助於他當選。哈里斯在她短暫的 16 週競選期間小心翼翼地避免與更古怪的進步事業聯繫在一起。但她並沒有令人信服地否認她先前對開放邊界和取消警察經費等的支持。
拜登也可能因過度解讀他 2020 年的勝利而受到指責。這是川普對冠狀病毒大流行處理不當的結果，而不是對美國民主健康狀況的擔憂。拜登承諾結束疫情並恢復美國政治正常而獲勝。然而，在獲得提名和就職期間，拜登開始相信他擁有徹底改變的許可。他多餘的 1.9 兆美元刺激措施加劇了因供應方中斷而本已上升的通膨。可以肯定的是，川普對美國憲法秩序構成了深遠的威脅——就像他現在服用類固醇一樣。然而，拜登選擇的司法部長梅里克·加蘭並不急於追究川普的責任。歷史學家將會對此感到困惑。
就像希拉蕊·柯林頓 2016 年的失敗一樣，哈里斯的失敗也有很多痕跡。但這次指責外國不良行為者會困難得多。俄羅斯總統普丁無疑會看到川普連任的巨大優勢，尤其是在烏克蘭。然而，是美國人在沒有明顯幫助的情況下讓川普重新上台。不管怎樣，民主黨的指責遊戲對於理解接下來會發生什麼事都是次要的。川普發誓要報復，他是認真的。
共和黨完全有可能贏得三連勝：總統職位、參議院（現在已經確定）和眾議院，眾議院仍然懸而未決。如果共和黨完全控制國會山莊，川普的行政權力將受到很少的製衡。美國最高法院在7月裁定川普對其作為總統的行為享有全面豁免權時，已經給川普開了相當於一張司法空白支票。
美國已經度過了一個決定性的轉捩點。如果認為川普在發誓要追擊敵人時言不由衷，那就太魯莽了。如果認為他會因為國家 50:50 的分裂而感到受到任何限制，那也是一種妄想。川普有權以難以想像的破壞性方式徹底改革美國。美國 2024 年大選的震撼性結果將無法逆轉。
So much for Kamala Harris’s vibes, joy, optimism and Hollywood smile. America has rejected the sale. Four years ago, a victorious Joe Biden wrote off Donald Trump as an “aberrant moment”. Given that Trump has a fair chance of winning the popular vote, in addition to America’s electoral college, history will surely now award that designation to Biden. Trump, after all, is among the most-known and highly investigated nominees in US history. To elect him once may have been an accident; to do so twice came with eyes wide open. Trump is legitimately the next president of the United States.
The question is why? A large part of the story is that a sufficient number of Americans want what Trump is selling: mass deportation of illegal immigrants, an end to globalisation and a middle finger to the liberal elite’s often self-parodying approach to identity, better known as wokeness. All of this outweighed whatever doubts voters had about Trump’s character. That the US seems likely to elect a convicted felon, who is also indicted for attempting to overthrow the last election and is an overt admirer of autocrats, can be interpreted in one of two ways. Either voters do not take the risk that Trump poses seriously, or they know exactly what they are letting the country in for but still prefer it to business as usual.
Either way, Trump’s re-election is an existential disaster for Democrats. It is also a historic game-changer for America’s allies. Democratic recriminations will come thick and fast. Any postmortem will surely highlight the fact that a visibly ailing Biden waited far too long to relinquish his party’s nomination. Had Biden bowed out six months earlier, Democrats would have had time to find a better prospect than Harris. Perhaps having a real primary contest would have made no difference. To be fair to Harris, she ran a well-oiled campaign, beat Trump in their sole debate and united Democrats behind her. But she was at best mediocre whenever the conversation veered on to the economy — a topic she did her best to avoid. Lacking a compelling economic narrative would be a big flaw in any US election. Competitive primaries would have found that out.
Having so seamlessly inherited the crown, Harris had little time and incentive to correct her deficiencies. Yet she could still have confected a “Sister Souljah moment” to prove she was no Berkeley radical. Bill Clinton’s critique of the eponymous Black author in 1992 showcased that he was not an old-fashioned liberal, which helped make him electable. Harris was careful to avoid association with the more outlandish progressive causes during her brief 16-week campaign. But she did not convincingly repudiate her earlier support for open borders and defunding the police, for example.
Biden can also be blamed for over-interpreting his 2020 victory. This was a result of Trump’s mishandling of the coronavirus pandemic, not worries about the health of US democracy. Biden won by promising to end the pandemic and restore normality to US politics. Somewhere between his nomination and his inauguration, however, Biden started to believe he had a licence for sweeping change. His superfluous $1.9tn stimulus poured fuel on inflation that was already rising because of supply-side disruptions. To be sure, Trump posed a profound threat to US constitutional order — as he now does on steroids. Yet in Merrick Garland, Biden chose an attorney-general who was in no hurry to hold Trump to account. Historians will puzzle about that.
Much as with Hillary Clinton’s 2016 loss, there are many fingerprints on Harris’s defeat. But it will be far harder this time to blame foreign bad actors. Russia’s Vladimir Putin will doubtless see huge advantages to Trump’s re-election, notably in Ukraine. Yet it was Americans who put Trump back in office without obvious help. Either way, the Democratic blame game will be secondary to understanding what is coming next. Trump has vowed retribution and he means it.
It is entirely possible that Republicans will win a trifecta: the presidency, the Senate, which is now a certainty, and the House of Representatives, which remains in the balance. Should Republicans take full control of Capitol Hill, there will be scant check on Trump’s executive authority. The US Supreme Court already wrote Trump the equivalent of a judicial blank cheque when it ruled in July that he had sweeping immunity for his actions as president.
America has turned a decisive corner. It would be foolhardy to suppose that Trump did not mean what he said when he vowed to come after his enemies. It would also be delusional to think that he will in any way feel constrained by his country’s 50-50 split. Trump has a mandate to overhaul the US in unimaginably disruptive ways. There will be no going back from the seismic outcome of America’s 2024 election.
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