GCIOSGF Newsletter 會訊：
Merry Reading Time 悦讀匯
Host： VWO
Edit: OF
未來國際關係格局的設想和預測，核心是世界從單極/多極向更加多元化、區域化、互不干涉、側重國家利益的雙邊關係轉變，強調維持現狀各自發展的主旋律，霸權主義減弱但並不會完全消失。這種觀點反映了對現有國際秩序調整的期望，認為美國戰略收縮、西方價值觀影響力下降後，各國國會更專注於自身事務，世界趨於“正常”與“平等”，但同時承認霸權慣性依然存在。
核心觀點解析:
美國戰略重心退縮到美洲: 意味著全球幹預減少，更關注區域內部事務。
西方價值不再是第一位: 意識形態影響力減弱，多元文化和國家利益優先。
雙邊關係時代: 國際關係回歸到國家間直接、務實交往，而非透過超級大國或集團主導。
維持勢力範圍: 現有大國格局大致穩定，不輕易打破。
「做好份內事」: 各國專注於國內發展，減少對外挑釁。
更正常、平等: 期望一個更少衝突、更基於規則（而非強權）的國際環境。
霸權主義減弱但未消: 現實中權力轉移是緩慢的，舊有模式慣性會持續。
這種設想的背景與意義:
對現有國際秩序的挑戰: 呼喚一種更符合多數國家利益，而非少數強權利益的體系。
多極化趨勢的體現: 世界權力分散，不再是單一中心。
「去美元化」、區域自強: 各國（如中國、俄羅斯等）強調獨立自主發展，減少對西方體系的依賴。
全球性議題合作需求: 在氣候變遷、疫情等議題上，更務實的雙邊和多邊合作比意識形態對抗更有效。
總的來說，這預測的場景是當前國際關係中一種深刻的轉型願景，反映了全球格局正在發生的深刻變化，從以西方主導的自由主義國際秩序，向更複雜的大國博弈與區域合作並存的局面演變。
The core of the vision and prediction of the future international relations pattern is the world's transformation from unipolar/multipolar to more diversified, regional, non-interference, non-interference and national interests of bilateral relations. This view reflects expectations of adjustments to the existing international order, arguing that after the US strategic contraction and the decline of the influence of Western values, national congresses are more focused on their own affairs and the world tends to be “normal” and “equal,” but at the same time acknowledging that hegemonic inertia persists.
Core viewpoint analysis:
The retreat of the US strategic focus to the Americas: means less global intervention and greater attention to internal affairs in the region.
Western values no longer come first: ideological influence wanes and multiculturalism and national interests take precedence.
The Era of Bilateral Relations: International relations return to direct, pragmatic exchanges between countries rather than dominance through superpowers or blocs.
Maintaining the sphere of influence: The existing pattern of great powers is generally stable and cannot be easily broken.
“Do your part”: Countries focus on domestic development and reduce external provocations.
More normal, equal: Expect an international environment that is less conflicted and more based on rules (rather than power).
Hegemonism wanes but does not disappear: in reality the transfer of power is slow and the inertia of old patterns will persist.
The background and significance of this vision:
A challenge to the existing international order: a call for a system that is more in line with the interests of the majority of states than the interests of a few powerful powers.
The manifestation of the multipolar trend: the world is dispersed in power and is no longer a single center.
“Dedollarization”, regional self-reliance: Countries (such as China, Russia, etc.) emphasize independent and autonomous development and reduce dependence on Western systems.
Need for cooperation on global issues: More pragmatic bilateral and multilateral cooperation is more effective than ideological confrontation on issues such as climate change and the pandemic.
Overall, the scenario we predict is a profoundly transformative vision in current international relations, reflecting the profound changes taking place in the global landscape, from a liberal international order dominated by the West to a more complex situation where great power games coexist with regional cooperation.
沒有留言:
張貼留言